Estimation of COVID-19 Infections in Turkey by Using Exponential Smoothing Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
Amaç: Bu çal??man?n amac?, 11.3.2020 ve 9.9.2020 tarihleri aras?nda Türkiye'deki koronavirüs hastal???-2019 [coronavirus disease (COVID-19)] hasta say?lar?n? üstel düzgünle?tirme modelini (exponential smoothing model) kullan?larak 2020 y?l? sonuna kadar say?lar?n?n tahmin edilmesidir. Gereç Yöntemler: Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Sa?l?k Bakanl???n?n web sitesinden günlük olarak yay?mlad??? güncelledi?i COVID-19 say?lar? kullan?larak, modelinin farkl? versiyonlar? uygulanarak kar??la?t?r?lm??, bu versiyonlardan en iyi uyum gösteren 2 adet model (toplamsal yöntem içeren model: Model 1 çarp?msal 2) belirlendikten sonra modeller yak?n gelecek tahminleri gerçekle?tirilmi?tir. Bulgular: Kullan?lmas? önerilen ilk (Model 1) için Türkiye'de 31 Ekim tarihi itibar?yla 374.842, 30 Kas?m 427.672, Aral?k ise 482.263 say?s?na ula??laca?? edilmi?tir. ?kinci ayn? tarihler s?ras?yla 391.992, 472.782 573.811 vaka say?lar?na hesaplanm??t?r. K???n etkisiyle daha da artaca?? göz önüne al?nd???nda 2'nin gerçekçi sonuçlar ortaya koydu?u de?erlendirilmi?tir. Sonuç: Önümüzdeki süreçte, çal??mada modellerin uluslararas? ölçekteki çal??malarda edilmesinde de kullan?labilece?i dü?ünülmektedir. Ayn? zamanda, söz konusu sadece de?il hastal??a ba?l? ölüm iyile?en ili?kin tahminlerin gerçekle?tirilmesinde
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Biostatistics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1308-7894', '2146-8877']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5336/biostatic.2020-79501